PON and cable broadband hardware sales should grow through 2017 says Dell’Oro

Upgrades to broadband access networks should create five years of good news for developers of PON and cable TV network hardware manufacturers, according to a new report from Dell’Oro Group.

The market research firm’s new “Access Five-Year Forecast” report predicts annual revenue growth for PON FTTx and cable MSO network equipment through 2017. Network enhancements to handle increasing Internet traffic, enable new revenue-generating services, and stay competitive with one another will provide the catalysts, according to Dell’Oro.

FTTH equipment suppliers will continue to see the major action come from Asia, although not to the degree seen previously. “For PON, although we expect China to continue to dominate the market through much of our forecast horizon, we are forecasting Chinese growth to moderate, resulting in single-digit PON revenue growth the next five years versus the previous double-digit growth,” said Steve Nozik, principal analyst of access research at Dell’Oro Group.

Cable-modem termination system (CMTS) sales will rebound from a slow 2012 to resume growth this year and beyond, Nozik believes. Growth in FTTH and CMTS revenue will come in the face of increasing interest in VDSL, he adds.

“For DSL, despite raising our VDSL forecast due to a more optimistic scenario for VDSL vectoring, we still expect total DSL revenues to decline albeit at a slower pace than over the past several years, with VDSL growth only partially offsetting rapidly declining ADSL sales,” Nozik explains.

The Dell’Oro Group “Access Five-Year Forecast” report provides an overview of the broadband access industry, with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, and port/unit shipments for cable, DSL, and PON equipment. Covered equipment includes CMTS, DSLAMs by technology (ADSL, ADSL2+, G.SHDSL, VDSL), and PON optical line terminals (OLTs). CPE technology reflects voice-over-IP or data-only.